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Dating the emergence of pandemic influenza viruses

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In 1998, a new triple-reassortant H3N2 virus—comprising genes from classical swine H1N1, North American avian, and human H3N2 (A/Sydney/5/97-like) influenza—was reported as the cause of outbreaks in North American swine, with subsequent establishment in pig populations, which have caused sporadic human infections in the United States since 2005 (refs 6, 7).

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Despite global concern regarding a new pandemic influenza, the emergence pathway of pandemic strains remains unknown.H1N1 S-OIV is resistant to the adamantanes, but it is sensitive to neuraminidase inhibitors. Preparations for production and distribution of a vaccine against the H1N1 S-OIV are under way, but the vaccine's efficacy and the timing of its availability in relation to the peak of the pandemic remain uncertain. Intercontinental virus movement has led to reassortment and lineage replacement, creating an antigenically and genetically diverse virus population whose dynamics are quantitatively different from those previously observed for human influenza viruses. Our findings indicate that increased antigenic drift is associated with reassortment events and offer insights into the emergence of influenza viruses with epidemic potential in swine and humans. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike licence ( which permits distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.